On September 29th, 2023, Kimberly Marten, professor of political science, published a new article in Survival, a prestigious policy journal of London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, titled “Whither Wagner? The Consequences of Prigozhin’s Mutiny and Demise.”
The article explores how Russia will manage paramilitary organizations going forward following the Wagner Group’s June 2023 mutiny and the death of former leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in August. Marten analyzes Wagner’s impact on Russia’s relationship to paramilitary groups. She asserts that Wagner has played an important role in expanding Russian influence in the Middle East and Africa at a relatively low cost while keeping official casualty counts limited in Ukraine and Syria in particular. Marten argues that because of this significant impact, the Wagner group — or some version of it, whether unified or fragmented — will likely continue to operate in the future. However, the Russian Ministry of Defense will most likely place the group under firmer control, with a continuing role for one or more oligarchs.